Now as they spoke to the people, the priests, the captain of the temple, and the Sadducees came upon them, being greatly disturbed that they taught the people and preached in Jesus the resurrection from the dead. And they laid hands on them, and put them in custody until the next day, for it was already evening. However, many of those who heard the word believed; and the number of the men came to be about five thousand.
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A tropical cyclone is a generic term for a low-pressure system that formed over tropical waters (25°S to 25°N) with thunderstorm activity near the center of its closed, cyclonic winds. Tropical cyclones derive their energy from vertical temperature differences, are symmetrical, and have a warm core.
Although rarer, some East Pacific names have been retired from the list. The climatology of this basin has most hurricanes moving away from the shore, so chances are rare that these storms would adversely affect people necessitating the name be retired.
A few Central Pacific names have been retired from their list. Most of them were removed for inflicting damage or adversely affecting the Hawaiian Islands. However, some have moved into the western Pacific to cause destructions, prompting their retirement.
Names retired before the 2000 season come from the name lists used by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Since 2000, the names removed come from the name lists used by the Japan Meteorological Agency. Most of the retired names inflicted significant damage to the nations affected.
If the storm passes through an area of high vertical wind shear or dry air the storm could be weakened. However, if it continues to pick up moisture from a warm environment, then it could become a major hurricane.
The Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model is the computer model utilized by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for coastal inundation risk assessment and the operational prediction of storm surge.
Internally a number of parallel SLOSH runs with same intensity, forward speed, storm trajectory, and initial tide level are performed for the basin. The only difference in runs is that each is conducted at some distance to the left or to the right of the main track (typically at the center of the grid). Each component run computes a storm surge value for each grid cell. For example, five parallel runs may yield storm surge values of 4.1, 7.1, 5.3, 6.3, and 3.8 feet. In this case, the MEOW for the cell is 7.1 ft. It is unknown (to the user) which track generated the MEOW for a particular cell, so it is entirely possible that the MEOW values for adjacent cells may have come from different runs. MEOWs are used to incorporate the uncertainties associated with a given forecast and help eliminate the possibility that a critical storm track will be missed in which extreme storm surge values are generated. MEOWs provide a worst case scenario for a particular category, forward speed, storm trajectory, and initial tide level incorporating uncertainty in forecast landfall location. The results are typically generated from several thousand SLOSH runs for each basin. Over 80 MEOWs have been generated for some basins. This product provides useful information aiding in hurricane evacuation planning.
The Northwest Pacific basin has tropical cyclones occurring all year round regularly. There is no official definition of typhoon season for this reason. There is a distinct minimum in February and the first half of March, and the main season goes from July to November with a peak in late August/early September.
The North Indian basin has a double peak of activity in May and November though tropical cyclones are seen from April to December. The severe cyclonic storms (>33 m/s winds [76 mph]) occur almost exclusively from April to June and late September to early December.
Just as every person is an individual, every hurricane is different. So every experience with such a storm will be unique. The summary below is of a general sequence of events one might expect from a Category 2 hurricane approaching a coastal area. What you might experience could be vastly different.
Hurricane forecasters estimate tropical cyclone strength from satellite using a method called the Dvorak technique. Vern Dvorak developed the scheme in the early 1970s using a pattern recognition decision tree (Dvorak 1975, 1984). Utilizing the current satellite picture of a tropical cyclone, one matches the image versus a number of possible pattern types: Curved band Pattern, Shear Pattern, Eye Pattern, Central Dense Overcast (CDO) Pattern, Embedded Center Pattern or Central Cold Cover Pattern. If infrared satellite imagery is available for Eye Patterns (generally the pattern seen for hurricanes, severe tropical cyclones and typhoons), then the scheme utilizes the difference between the temperature of the warm eye and the surrounding cold cloud tops. The larger the difference, the more intense the tropical cyclone is estimated to be.
The errors for using the above Dvorak technique in comparison to aircraft measurements taken in the Northwest Pacific average 10 mb with a standard deviation of 9 mb (Martin and Gray 1993). Atlantic tropical cyclone estimates likely have similar errors. Thus an Atlantic hurricane that is given a CI number of 4.5 (winds of 77 kt and pressure of 979 mb) could in reality be anywhere from winds of 60 to 90 kt and pressures of 989 to 969 mb. These would be typical ranges to be expected; errors could be worse. However, in the absence of other observations, the Dvorak technique does at least provide a consistent estimate of what the true intensity is.
High Water Marks (USGS / FEMA)These are the lines left on trees and structures marking the highest (peak) elevation of the water surface from a flood event. They are created by foam, seeds, and other debris. Survey crews deploy after a storm, locate, and record reliable high-water marks. GPS methods are used to determine the location of these marks, which are then mapped relative to a vertical reference datum.
There have been numerous techniques that have been considered over the years to modify hurricanes: seeding clouds with dry ice or silver iodide, reducing evaporation from the ocean surface with thin-layers of polymers, cooling the ocean with cryogenic material or icebergs, changing the radiational balance in the hurricane environment by absorption of sunlight with carbon black, flying jets clockwise in the eyewall to reverse the flow, exploding the hurricane apart with hydrogen bombs, and blowing the storm away from land with giant fans, etc. As carefully reasoned as some of these suggestions are, they all share the same shortcoming: They fail to appreciate the size and power of tropical cyclones. For example, when Hurricane Andrew struck South Florida in 1992, the eye and eyewall devastated a swath 20 miles wide. The heat energy released around the eye was 5,000 times the combined heat and electrical power generation of the Turkey Point nuclear power plant over which the eye passed. The kinetic energy of the wind at any instant was equivalent to that released by a nuclear warhead.
The idea here is to spread a layer of sunlight absorbing or reflecting particles (such as micro-encapsulated soot, carbon black, or tiny reflectors) at high altitude around a hurricane. This would prevent solar radiation from reaching the surface and cooling it, while at the same time increase the temperature of the upper atmosphere. Being vertically oriented, tropical cyclones are driven by energy differences between the lower and upper layer of the troposphere. Reducing this difference should reduce the forces behind hurricane winds.
There has been some experimental work in trying to develop a liquid that when placed over the ocean surface would prevent evaporation from occurring. If this worked in the tropical cyclone environment, it would probably have a limiting effect on the intensity of the storm as it needs huge amounts of oceanic evaporation to continue to maintain its intensity (Simpson and Simpson 1966). However, finding a substance that would be able to stay together in the rough seas of a tropical cyclone proved to be the downfall of this idea.
Oil slicks are patchy, and likely would not cover a big enough area to affect the hurricane. It is also difficult to predict and control how and where the oil will move when affected by the storm. If oil happens to spill and there is a storm, the oil could be carried into or away from the coastline depending on its track, but generally the storm will have a dispersing effect.
Since hurricanes draw their energy from warm ocean water, some proposals have been put forward to tow icebergs from the arctic zones to the tropics to cool the sea surface temperatures. Others have suggested pumping cold bottom water in pipes to the surface, or releasing bags of cold freshwater from near the bottom to do this.
For the bag/pipe method you would have to preposition your system across all possible approaches for hurricanes. Just for the US mainland from Cape Hatteras to Brownsville would mean covering 528,000 sq mi (850,000 sq km) of ocean floor with devices.
AOC is presently based at Linder Airfield in Lakeland, Florida and among its fleet of planes has two P-3 Orions, originally made as Navy sub hunters, but modified to include three radars as well as a suite of meteorological instruments and dropsonde capability. Starting in 1996 AOC added to its fleet a Gulfstream IV jet that is able to make observations from much higher altitudes (up to 45,000 feet). 2b1af7f3a8